The NFL bye week is actually a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough attention to. If you consider yourself a novice sports bettor, so you spot the kind of betting line which has you quickly on the way to Google News as well as your favorite sports stat site to ascertain if a player is injured, don’t forget also to notice in the event that team’s opponent is coming off a bye. For all those advanced sports bettors being affected by the bye week, I’ll cover some more impressive range research and insights regarding the bye in this post. Before getting to that, I’ll address some general points for any individual not sure exactly what a bye week is, or on which weeks teams have byes.
While you probably know, sbobet online is made up of each team playing 16 games. Back 1990, the league changed to a 17 week season in order to profit more from television advertising. This left each team by using a single week off in the course of the season referred to as a bye week. The bye week had been random spanning across the entire season, but also in 2004 to generate a more uniform schedule for the playoff race, the format was changed. How it works is now bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. As being a sports bettor, you’ll need to pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, since they have the main advantage of extra time to relax, improve your health, practice and prepare.
Basically we won’t include this inside our analysis, an additional area recreational bettors need to concentrate on is Thursday games. Starting week 10 in the NFL season you will discover a single Thursday night game, and so on Thanksgiving the two main additional Thursday day games. Consequently on Thursday, teams will often be playing on short rest, which is truly the case both for teams; therefore it is not something to think about. Where it might be a concern is definitely the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and definately will gain a similar advantage to the main one they have got from the bye week. Be sure when making bets around the NFL to cover attention both to teams coming off the bye, as well as teams coming off a Thursday game.
Due to the fact this isn’t a write-up about statistical handicapping models, a topic which 95% of readers might find too advanced, I won’t enter into it in much more detail than to generate a single statement and after that support it. That statement: the more effective a team is, the better they take advantage of the bye week. This is not a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis that this best odds makers are aware of. To offer you a little clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye can be a multiplier depending on power rankings. All teams gain benefit from the bye week, but exactly how much they benefit is proportional to how good of your team they can be.
In the event the above statement are at all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share some basic stats about how precisely well teams coming from the bye week have fared that may help you comprehend the lines a little bit better.
Over the four newest seasons (2007-2010), in games where just one single team is originating off the bye, the team coming off of the bye carries a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 from the spread.
Now, if you’re considering betting teams coming from the bye because the past 4 years they’ve covered 58.1% of the time, read my article around the current betting market. A system including that might been employed in 2006; but, much more likely than not, this trend won’t continue. The reason being today NFL betting line is far more efficient, as well as the market will probably correct itself.
The standard ATS data is nice, but it really doesn’t inform us much unless we break it down further. After accomplishing this, an even more interesting trend appears. Utilizing the same 110 game sample, teams coming off of the bye week which can be favored have a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming from the bye use a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is pretty small, but 15-1-2 from the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To discuss a remote stat out from a post I wrote several dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (more than a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of the time.
To return to and acquire more accurate four year numbers for those favorites coming off of the bye, you can find 9 games missing through the 110 sample size I used. The reason being 9 times since 2007 there were games where both teams were coming away from the bye. (32×4=128), I purchased the 110 sample size because 18 of the byes were not relevant to opening discussion.
The information here strongly supports that good teams gain benefit from the bye more than the market is giving them credit for. I only say that because only good teams are favored on the highway from the NFL. Using just road favorites is a little quirky, however, and several might contemplate it “data mining”, even if this trend is well founded when dating back to much beyond 2007. If we’re likely to really check out this in depth, though, we have to have a look at subsets of all favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s included in the spread.